MLB Playoffs Odds: ALCS Game 7, Marines vs Blue Jays
MLB Playoffs Odds: Mariners vs. Blue Jays ALCS Game 7
It all comes down to this. The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners will meet in a decisive Game 7 of the American League Championship Series on Monday night, with a World Series berth on the line. Toronto clawed its way back from an 0-2 deficit to even the series at three games apiece, while Seattle looks to recover after letting an early lead slip away. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 ET from Rogers Centre in Toronto, and the latest MLB Playoffs Odds from BUSR list the Blue Jays as -132 favorites, with the total set at 7.5 runs.
Toronto’s comeback has reignited its home crowd, and with ace Shane Bieber set to take the mound against George Kirby, the Blue Jays are well-positioned to complete the turnaround. Seattle, meanwhile, enters as a slight underdog at +111, hoping its pitching staff can rediscover the form that carried them to two early wins. With tension high and both bullpens ready for “all hands on deck” usage, Game 7 promises to be a defining moment in the MLB playoffs and a major focus for MLB Playoffs betting fans tracking late-series momentum shifts across the MLB playoffs lines.
Seattle Mariners
Seattle’s postseason journey has been defined by tight games and high-stakes moments. The Mariners advanced to the ALCS after outlasting the Detroit Tigers in a 15-inning marathon to clinch the Division Series, a 3-2 win that showcased their resilience. That same energy carried into the start of this matchup, as they stole both road games in Toronto (3-1, 10-3) to seize early control. But since then, the Mariners have dropped four of the last five contests, including three straight losses on the road, setting up a win-or-go-home scenario.
Seattle’s latest setback came in Game 6, a 6-2 loss that saw Logan Gilbert struggle in the starting role. The right-hander allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits and a walk over four innings, setting the tone for a night where the offense failed to keep up. The team mustered only five hits, with Josh Naylor delivering a solo home run and Eugenio Suárez adding an RBI single to account for the scoring.
Seattle to Overcome their Offensive Issues
The Mariners’ offensive inconsistencies have been a recurring issue. In the six games of this series, they’ve averaged only 4.3 runs per game, and in their three losses in Toronto, they’ve managed a combined six runs. Despite flashes from hitters like Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco earlier in the postseason, Seattle’s lineup has struggled to sustain pressure against elite pitching, and they now face another formidable test in Shane Bieber.
Seattle turns to right-hander George Kirby for this decisive matchup. The 27-year-old will make his fourth postseason start after a rocky outing in Game 3, where he gave up eight earned runs on eight hits and two walks across four innings. That performance inflated his postseason ERA to 7.07 with a 1.43 WHIP. During the regular season, Kirby went 10-8 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP across 126 innings.
Kirby has not shown the same sharpness that made him one of Seattle’s reliable arms earlier in the year, and Toronto’s lineup has capitalized in previous meetings. Current Blue Jays hitters are slashing .310/.329/.535 against him over 71 at-bats, led by George Springer (4-for-11) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5-for-12). Those numbers highlight the challenge ahead for Kirby, especially considering the Blue Jays’ recent offensive momentum.
If Kirby runs into early trouble, Seattle’s bullpen will be leaned on heavily. The Mariners’ relievers have been a key strength in the MLB playoffs, boasting elite late-game metrics with a postseason WHIP of 1.15 and the ability to suppress damage in high-leverage moments. Manager Dan Wilson is expected to have a quick hook, with multiple arms ready to bridge the middle innings should the starter falter again.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays’ path to this moment has been an exercise in resilience and timely execution. After dispatching the New York Yankees in four games during the ALDS, the Jays found themselves in a 0-2 hole against Seattle following consecutive home losses (3-1, 10-3). Since then, they have stormed back, winning three of the last four games and forcing a seventh and deciding contest in front of a raucous Rogers Centre crowd.
Toronto’s turnaround has been powered by an offense that rediscovered its rhythm in the Pacific Northwest. The Blue Jays exploded for 13 runs in Game 3 and followed that with an 8-2 win in Game 4 before closing out Game 6 with another statement victory, 6-2. The Game 6 triumph was fueled by a balanced attack that combined power and discipline at the plate. Addison Barger homered and drove in three runs, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2-for-4 with a home run and two runs scored, continuing his torrid postseason pace.
On the mound, rookie Trey Yesavage delivered under pressure, tossing 5.2 innings of two-run ball to pick up the win. His poise set the tone for the bullpen, which locked down the Mariners for the remainder of the night. That effort sets up Toronto with a rested relief corps and confidence heading into Game 7, where Shane Bieber will take the ball.
Bieber Experience on Call for Today
Bieber provides stability and postseason experience for Toronto in this win-or-go-home scenario. The former Cy Young Award winner earned the victory in Game 3, throwing six innings and allowing two earned runs on four hits and one walk. That performance improved his playoff record to 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this year.
During the regular season, Bieber made seven starts, posting a 4-2 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 40.1 innings. In his postseason career, spanning five starts, he owns a 4.73 ERA across 26.2 innings. What stands out most for bettors is his historical success against Seattle, current Mariners hitters are slashing only .221/.255/.290 against him across 131 at-bats. Those numbers suggest Bieber’s repertoire continues to give Seattle fits, particularly his command of the strike zone and ability to generate weak contact.
Toronto’s offense has also excelled in supporting its starters during this series. The Blue Jays have scored 27 runs across their three wins, driven by timely extra-base hits and improved plate discipline. With the top of the lineup in form and the bottom half contributing with situational hitting, the Jays have regained the offensive balance that made them the AL’s top seed.
At home, Toronto has been dominant. They finished the regular season with a 54-27 record at Rogers Centre, and that home-field advantage has already shown up in this series. The energy from the crowd, coupled with Bieber’s experience, provides Toronto with both an emotional and tactical edge entering Monday night’s Game 7.
Betting Recommendation
From a MLB playoffs betting perspective, Game 7 sets up favorably for Toronto. The MLB Playoffs Odds at BUSR reflect the Blue Jays as -120 favorites, a fair price considering their momentum, home record, and pitching edge. Seattle’s bullpen remains a threat, but George Kirby’s recent form and Toronto’s historical success against him make the Mariners difficult to back in this spot.
Toronto has taken control of the series momentum, winning three of the last four games, including two on the road. They return home with a pitching matchup advantage and an offense that has solved Seattle’s rotation over the last few contests. Bieber’s familiarity with the Mariners’ hitters and his track record of efficiency should allow him to navigate the early innings effectively. If Toronto’s lineup can pressure Kirby again, the game could tilt quickly in their favor.
Despite a high-scoring Game 3 between these same starters, the dynamics of a Game 7 suggest a tighter affair. Both managers will deploy aggressive bullpen management, with every high-leverage arm available to suppress scoring. Bieber’s dominance over Seattle’s hitters (.221 average against) and the Mariners’ bullpen strength both favor a lower total. The stakes tend to shorten offensive approaches, leading to conservative run production, making the under the optimal play on the MLB playoffs odds.
Expect a tense, low-scoring contest decided by pitching depth and situational execution. Toronto’s combination of experience, form, and home-field advantage positions them well to finish the comeback and punch their ticket to the World Series.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -132, Under 7.5 (-110)
For bettors tracking the MLB Playoffs Odds and late-series trends, Toronto offers clear value to close the ALCS at home. The combination of Bieber’s command, Guerrero’s power, and Rogers Centre’s momentum makes the Blue Jays the top side to back in Game 7 of the MLB playoffs.
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